In simple language

What leaders should take from the research

01

Reported indicator: staffing pressure varies. OECD’s 2026 publication overview reports 9.1% of primary and secondary teachers not fully qualified and 6.4% of fully qualified teachers leaving the profession in 2024/25 across OECD countries. It also highlights mathematics and natural-science shortages. These are reported cross-country indicators, not a target turnover rate for your school. OECD (2026)

02

Interpretation: a school exit and a profession exit differ. A teacher moving to another school is a local staffing loss but may remain in teaching. Record destination when known and avoid comparing unlike definitions.

03

Proposed action: separate supply from retention risk. An incumbent may stay in a hard-to-recruit role; a popular vacancy may repeatedly reopen because of working conditions. Give each problem its own response.

04

Proposed action: distinguish a forecast from an event. Renewal intention, contract expiry, confirmed departure and completed appointment need separate fields. Do not turn an uncertain conversation into a confirmed vacancy.

Evidence strength and limits

Useful, with boundaries

The original OECD publication overview was reviewed; chapter tables and country notes were not fully reviewed for this refresh. Qualification definitions, country coverage and labour markets need checking before numerical comparison. School cohorts can be small and cross-border mobility can be substantial. This proposed dashboard is a local planning aid, not a validated risk score.

For your next leadership meeting

Seven questions for your leadership team

Use the prompts to examine your own context and decide what, if anything, to change.

  1. Where is our workforce most fragile?

    • Which subjects or phases depend on one person?
    • Where is recruitment already taking longer than expected?

  2. What does turnover hide?

    • How do patterns differ by career stage, contract or department?
    • What reasons for leaving are recorded too broadly to be useful?

  3. Which risks come from supply and which from working conditions?

    • Are qualified applicants scarce for this role?
    • Would a new hire encounter the same conditions that led others to leave?

  4. How reliable is our evidence?

    • Do we distinguish intentions from confirmed departures?
    • What might a small cohort or one unusual year distort?

  5. What capacity exists within the school?

    • Who could grow into a hard-to-fill role with support?
    • What would that cost in time and workload?

  6. Which constraints can leaders influence?

    • What depends on visa, housing or national qualification rules?
    • Where could the school change support, role design or development?

    For a local discussion about support and working conditions, use our five teacher stay interview questions. It draws on an IES report about Utah districts; it is not a validated instrument or a proven retention intervention.

  7. What should we watch before the next recruitment cycle?

    • Which early signal would allow time to respond?
    • How will we know whether a chosen response reduced the risk?

Proposed school action

These are Cited Leadership discussion proposals, not a tested intervention package.

FieldDecision it informsDefinition to fix
Role and required qualificationRecruitment and coverSubject/phase, local credential requirement
Contract and renewal statusWhen to recruitIntention, decision or signed renewal
Vacancy days and suitable applicantsSupply pressureStart/end event and minimum criteria
Actual departure and reasonRetention responseSchool/profession exit; multiple factors allowed
Cover and development capacityContinuity planningCredible cover with available time

Use restricted access for person-level records. Report aggregate patterns with small-group protection. Review staffing risk with workload and development evidence; a colour-coded field does not replace professional judgment.

Primary sources

References

  1. OECD. (2026). Education at a Glance 2026: OECD Indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris. Published 29 September 2026. DOI: 10.1787/b4968bbc-en.
    Design
    International comparative indicators and policy analysis.
    Setting
    OECD and partner education systems; headline teacher figures refer to school year 2024/25.
    Material actually reviewed
    Original publication overview: key figures and teacher-shortage sections. Full 558-page report, chapter tables and country notes not reviewed for this refresh.
    Limitations
    Headline cross-country figures are not a local school benchmark; definitions and coverage need checking before numerical comparison.
    Source reviewed
    12 October 2026

    Reviewed source route

These questions are prompts for local discussion. The cited research does not determine what any one school should do.